Game Start 19:00 & 20:10 CEST – 7 March 2017
After a really exciting IEM Katowice we are back to online tournaments. I will focus on ESL Pro League and hope that I haven’t lost the ability to predict online matches.
We have a 2xBO1 coming up, Heroic vs G2. Yesterday when I was looking at the odds, they were pretty 50/50, especially at EGB. Today, not so much – the bookmakers have now decided to favor the newly formed French team.
I am not convinced though. G2 have had a tough start to the new roster, that on paper should be really good! They have played plenty of hours since the new lineup and they SHOULD play better now.
But on the other hand, Heroic came out as… well… heroes, during IEM Katowice. A real upset in Group B – knocking out both SK and Virtus.pro. They also made sure to put up a fight against Astralis before getting knocked out themselves.
The maps are Train and Overpass.
We don’t have a lot of information on G2 with the new roster. They won against EnVyUs on Train whilst losing badly against fnatic and Astralis (the last three months). Same statistics show that they lost on overpass against Heroic (!), GODSENT and North.
Heroic have had a 60% win-rate on Train and 66% on Overpass. Keep in mind that the score isn’t that good if we erase all wins against lower tier teams.
The arguments are clear, we can either pick the team with a proven recent form (but with a bad history of online results) or a team that haven’t really proved anything with a new roster (but have put in a lot of hours as of late).
As the odds, have shifted so much, I will probably go for a low bet on Heroic, 2.2 @Betway. OBS! I will wait and watch the Train game, if it is clear that G2 have developed as a team, it might be good to consider a skip!